The improved outlook for US corn and soybeans means that the USDA’s numbers on Friday will be closely watched. Pre-report trade estimates have tipped the US corn yield to decline to 175.5 bushels per acre, down from USDA’s 177.5 bpa July estimate. Soybean yields are also expected to be lowered to 51.3 bpa, down from 52.0 bpa in July.

Brazil’s Conab reports that as at 5 August the 2022-23 first maize harvest was virtually complete and second (safrinha) harvest was 64pc complete (80pc previous week), with fieldwork estimated to be 95pc done in Mato Grosso where yields have exceeded initial expectations. Dry weather allowed fieldwork in Parana to make some progress, but remained significantly below the prior year’s pace. The 2023-24 wheat harvest was 3pc complete (2pc previous year) with crop development in both Rio Grande do Sul and Parana deemed to be good.

AgRural Brazil has revised up total maize production by 3.1Mt to 135.4Mt (113.1Mt previous year) reflecting higher than anticipated yields, with second (safrinha) production lifted by 2.7Mt.

Russian consultancy IKAR has revised up their 2023-24 grain production forecast by 2.5Mt, to 137.0Mt (157.7Mt previous year), with wheat lifted by 1.5Mt, to 88.0Mt (104.2Mt). Wheat exports were revised up by 1.5Mt, to 47.5Mt. 

Recently released trade figures reveal that China’s exports fell 14.5pc year-on-year in July, following a 12.4pc decline in June and the largest decline since the start of COVID in February 2020. Analysts were expecting a 5pc decline. China’s exports to Europe fell 20.6pc year-on-year in July, while shipments to the US dropped for the 12th consecutive month by 23.1pc. Economic growth fell to 0.8pc in the three months ending in June, down from the January-March period’s 2.2pc. At 3.2pc, annual growth would be among China’s weakest in three decades.

Syria’s state grains agency seeks 200,000 tonnes of milling wheat, in an international tender.

Australia

Local markets continued to firm over the course of the day, with the lower AUD assisting new crop bids. A $460/t SFW1 delivered Darling Downs was traded, while $430/t APWMG Port Kembla was posted to the grower bid and we saw $420/t delivered Melbourne Port for APWMG. Barley also continued to firm on new and old crop while canola bids were back for the day.

August line ups is currently showing 2.91Mt of total grains on the stem up from 2.71Mt last week. Wheat is at 2.16Mt up from 2.00Mt, Barley is at 304kt down from 354kt, Canola is at 369kt up from 318kt and Sorghum is unchanged at 80kt.

According to ABS data Australia exported 329kt of canola in June, down 35pc from May. Pakistan was our biggest buyer at 121kt followed by the EU (117kt) and Japan (72kt).