Weather: Reports from Europe suggest wheat and canola crops are running around 2–3 weeks ahead of normal development, with generally favourable growing conditions across key regions. Early crop growth increases the risk of frost damage if colder weather returns during sensitive stages like stem elongation and flowering.
Markets
CBOT grains were weaker overnight as crude oil plunged more than 13 percent after comments suggesting the Iran conflict may end soon, removing much of the geopolitical risk premium built into markets. May Chicago wheat fell 12¼¢ to $5.91/bu and corn slipped 1½¢, while soybeans gained 5½¢ on optimism around potential US–China trade discussions.
The March WASDE report offered little fresh direction with minimal balance sheet changes; global corn stocks rose to 292.75 million tonnes (Mt), above expectations, while wheat ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 276.96Mt, leaving markets focused on geopolitics and upcoming US acreage data.
Day Ahead – Australia
Likely to be softer across the board today following overnight moves. It will be interesting to see what traders do with canola after it failed to reflect the full upside in offshore markets — if we see last night’s pullback passed through 1:1.
Delivered markets remain propped up by low grower engagement with bid offer spreads still apart.

Global wheat:  CBOT wheat futures fell for a second straight session as crude oil plunged more than 13pc after comments from Donald Trump suggesting the Iran conflict could end soon, unwinding much of the geopolitical risk premium built into markets earlier in the week. May Chicago wheat settled down 12¼¢ at $5.91/bu with energy markets driving much of the direction.
The March WASDE report offered little fresh direction for wheat markets with minimal balance sheet changes. US wheat supply and demand estimates were left unchanged while the global outlook showed slightly larger supplies and consumption but marginally lower ending stocks at 276.96Mt, still sitting near a five-year high.

In Europe, old crop farmer selling has accelerated modestly with wheat around 70pc sold, reflecting a recent lift in marketing activity during the rally. Early crop conditions are generally good with wheat running 2–3 weeks ahead of normal, although flowering canola and wheat entering stem elongation increases frost risk in parts of the EU.

The EU wheat crop is currently forecast around 141Mt, down roughly 8Mt YoY but closer to historical averages after last year’s unusually large harvest. Bulgaria remains a watchpoint with potential downside of around 1Mt if seasonal conditions deteriorate.

Other grains and oilseeds:
Corn markets were largely unchanged following the March WASDE with U.S. balance sheets left untouched. However global corn ending stocks rose to 292.75Mt, above expectations, reflecting higher production estimates in Brazil (132Mt) and Ukraine (30.7Mt).

Soybeans moved against the broader grain trend with May futures gaining 5½¢ to $12.01¾/bu, supported by optimism around potential US–China trade discussions. Soybean oil biofuel demand was trimmed slightly in the WASDE despite elevated crude oil prices.

Canola futures in Winnipeg were softer with weakness across the vegetable oil complex. Lower soyoil, rapeseed and palm oil prices combined with technical selling pressure following the recent rally.

EU rapeseed production is forecast at 22Mtt llion hectares (Mha) off 6.6Mha with crush estimated around 27.5Mt, leaving the region structurally reliant on imports. Imports of Canadian seed remain constrained due to biofuel sustainability rules, limiting the amount that can flow into the EU biodiesel sector.

Ukrainian canola production is expected to fall to around 2.5Mt (−1Mt YoY) after lower plantings and higher winterkill, although decent soil moisture has helped offset some of the damage.

In Canada, pulse acreage is expected to decline this spring due to weaker prices and large carryout stocks. Lentil acres are projected down 5.5pc, dry peas down 12.3pc, while chickpeas are the only pulse expected to increase area.

Macro:
Global commodity markets remain highly volatile as the war between the United States/Israel and Iran escalates. Iran has threatened to block shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint that handles roughly 20pc of global oil and LNG trade, raising concerns around energy supply and fertiliser markets.

Crude oil surged toward $120/bbl earlier in the week before retreating below $90/bbl after Trump suggested the conflict could end soon. The sharp reversal triggered widespread volatility across commodity markets with grains and oilseeds trading closely in line with energy.

The Australian dollar has remained surprisingly resilient despite the geopolitical volatility. Currency analysts note the AUD has held firm even as oil prices spiked, supported by Australia’s relatively high interest rates and strong yield advantage compared with other developed economies. The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to maintain a more hawkish stance than many global peers as it manages inflation risks tied partly to higher energy costs.

With the WASDE report largely a non-event, market attention now turns to upcoming US acreage and stocks data at the end of March, biofuel policy developments and the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which continues to dominate short-term price direction across agricultural markets.

Local:
WA canola bids were stronger yesterday $760 and $810 new crop. Wheat was softer $327 and $353, while barley was $328 and $330 FIS Albany.

Through the east canola was $735 and $770 new crop, wheat $325 and $347, barley $309 and $305 track Geelong.

Vic canola should now be cheap enough to switch on more export demand, which should help underpin old crop values.

Lentil markets remain steady around $670, with grower selling slow and the AUD above 70c making export business difficult.

Store lamb prices continue to surge on tightening supply and strong restocker and feedlot demand, with heavies reportedly trading up to $260/head to finish into super heavies. Hook prices have rebounded to around $11–$12.50/kg cwt, while yard records continue to fall with $473/head at Wagga and a national record $495/head at Griffith for extra heavy lambs.