Canola rapeseed markets eased one percent.
- Chicago December 2024 wheat down US4.25c/bu to 603c/bu
- Kansas December 2024 wheat up 1.75c/bu to 612.5c/bu
- Minneapolis December 2024 wheat up 2.5c/bu to 673c/bu
- MATIF wheat December 2024 unchanged at €222.75/t;
- Corn December 2024 down 2c/bu to 467.25c/bu;
- Soybeans November 2024 down 8.75c/bu to 1158.5c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2024 down C$5.80/t to $640/t
- MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €5/t to €459.25/t
- ASX May 2024 wheat up A$1/t to $328/t;
- ASX January 2025 wheat up A$3.50/t to $352.50/t
- ASX May 2024 barley up A$6/t to $310/t;
- ASX January 2025 barley up A$0.50/t to $317/t
- AUD dollar down 40 points to US$0.6402.
International
South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier has cut his Argentine corn production forecast by 3Mt to 50Mt, noting the impact of corn stunt disease. Dr Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean crop at 51Mt. He raised his Brazilian soybean crop estimate 2Mt to 147Mt, citing the crop in Rio Grande do Sul finishing much better than anticipated and kept his Brazilian corn crop at 112Mt.
Argentina’s Rosario Grains Exchange noted that recent continued heavy rainfall has raised concerns about delays to soybean harvest, with production losses possible due to increased disease risks. However, rainfall may be beneficial for 2024-25 wheat plantings, expected to get underway next month.
According to Ukraine’s Ag Ministry, grain production is expected to fall to about 52Mt this year, down 6Mt from 2023-24, due mostly to reduced plantings. Corn production is pegged at 27Mt, wheat at 19Mt and barley at 5Mt. Sunflower seed production is forecast at 12.5Mt, soybeans at 5.2Mt and rapeseed at 4Mt.
The USDA FAS post in Kyiv has tipped overall Ukrainian grain production and exports to fall in 2024-25 reflecting lower area planted as grains have had lower profitability compared to oilseeds. It forecast 2024-25 wheat production at 21.1Mt (-9pc), barley at 6.6Mt (unch) and corn at 26.6Mt (-6pc).
US Fed Chair Jerome Powell has hinted at the possibility of later rate cuts. He was reported as saying that strength in the labour market and progress on inflation so far, deemed it appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide the Fed decision-making.
Egypt’s GASC reportedly purchased 120kt of Ukrainian wheat in a tender that closed yesterday. The purchase is for May 20-30 shipment, including 60kt at US$255.35/t and 60kt at $256.60/t both from LDC.
Japan’s MAFF is seeking to buy a total of 94,612 tonnes of milling wheat from the US and Canada in a regular tender that will close late on Thursday.
Australia
In local markets, WA current crop wheat and barley markets were firmer again, with demand evident across all port zones. APW1 in the Kwinana port zone now A$390-395/t FIS, H2 around $395/t FIS and H1 around $400-405/t FIS. Values in other port zones are running around $5-10/t behind. Current season feed barley traded up to just shy of $350/t FIS and $360/t for Maxi1 malt. New season canola (CAN) bids held at $740/t FIS, and new season wheat bids remain at $375/t FIS Kwinana.
The BOM Climate Driver Update released yesterday noted that El Niño has now ended and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has returned to neutral. Climate models indicate ENSO will likely continue to be neutral until at least July 2024. They also noted that while three out of seven international models are predicting Central Pacific sea surface temps to reach La Niña thresholds in July, El Niño and La Niña predictions made in mid-autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond July should be used with caution.
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