Canola settled 2 percent lower and most markets eased about one percent
- Chicago December 2024 wheat down US7c/bu to 606.25c/bu
- Kansas December 2024 wheat down 8c/bu to 610.5c/bu
- Minneapolis December 2024 wheat down 12.5c/bu to 672.75c/bu
- MATIF wheat December 2024 down €3.25/t to €220.75/t;
- Corn December 2024 down 4.25c/bu to 466c/bu;
- Soybeans November 2024 down 5c/bu to 1164.25c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2024 down C$13.40/t to $645.30/t
- MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €5/t to €461.75/t
- ASX May 2024 wheat up A$1.50/t to $325.50/t;
- ASX January 2025 wheat up A$1/t to $346/t
- ASX May 2024 barley unchanged at A$300/t;
- ASX January 2025 barley down A$2.50/t to $312.50/t
- AUD dollar up 26 points to US$0.6538.
International
The April USDA report came out overnight with little fanfare. All the major numbers were pretty much in line with pre report estimates, leaving the markets to go back to focus on the weather.
US crop numbers saw the following balance sheet changes:
- Corn ending stocks came in at 2.122 billion bushels, slightly tighter than march, driven by higher ethanol and feed consumption.
- Soybeans added a few bushels with ending stocks pegged at 340 mbu. Lower exports were the main change.
- Wheat ending stocks were estimated at 698mbu vs pre report guess of 691mbu – lower domestic use driving the small increase.
Global balance sheet changes were as follows:
- Corn world ending stocks were pegged at 318.30Mt, slightly higher than the pre-report guess of 317.1Mt. Argy production was 1Mt lower at 55Mt while Brazil was unchanged at 124Mt.
- Soybeans were basically unchanged. Both Argy and Brazil production were left unchanged at 50 and 155Mt respectively.
- Wheat global ending stocks came in at 258.3, slightly below the guess of 259.3Mt. 23/24 EU production actually went up from 133.65Mt to 134.15Mt. Russia, Australia, Argy and Canada production were all left unchanged, while North Africa fell slightly due to the extensive drought.
All eyes are on the forecast for both the US HRW belt and Russia wheat growing areas – both of which need a drink and are expected to get some relief. The US forecast has so far failed to fully materialise which is certainly cause for concern given the temps that have been recorded there.
The USDA pegs Argy corn production at 55Mt, while the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its estimate to 50.5Mt, indicating that there has been damage from the spiroplasma bacteria that is being spread by leafhoppers.
China is seemingly reacting to a new directive to support their local growers. Reports over the last 2 weeks indicate that at least 4 cargoes of Ukrainian corn have been cancelled with more potentially impacted. Somewhat at odds with this was the release from the Chinese Ag Ministry, increasing corn and cotton imports for the 23/24 crop year in its April outlook.
Australia
Firmer numbers were seen yesterday on WA current crop wheat. APW1 in the Kwinana port zone was bid A$380-385/t FIS with exporters still keen to accumulate grain against existing export commitments.
Feed barley also firmed 5 dollars to around $345/t FIS and $355-360/t for Maxi1.
New season canola (CAN) bids increased to $730-740/t FIS, and new season wheat bids were $375/t FIS in Kwinana.
Over east, it was all about canola with bids up circa $12/t with the delivered bids leading the charge. Hard to peg how engaged the grower has been on this rally given they have seen these numbers previously.
SorgX still a feature in the north with mould an issue.
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