Soybeans and canola gained a little overnight. Wheats eased a little.
- Chicago December 2024 wheat down US4.25c/bu to 689c/bu
- Kansas December 2024 wheat down 9.5c/bu to 696.5c/bu
- Minneapolis December 2024 wheat down 6c/bu to 736.75c/bu
- MATIF wheat December 2024 down €1.75/t to €248.75/t;
- Corn December 2024 unchanged at 488.5c/bu;
- Soybeans November 2024 up 8.25c/bu to 1228c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola November 2024 up C$6/t to $681.40/t
- MATIF rapeseed November 2024 down €3/t to €485.50/t
- ASX May 2024 wheat up A$8/t to $360/t;
- ASX January 2025 wheat up A$12/t to $382/t
- ASX May 2024 barley up $4.50/t to $327/t;
- ASX January 2025 barley up $1/t to $331.50/t
- AUD dollar down 27 points to US$0.6598.
International
National agricultural agency Conab reported that as at 5 May, the Brazil 2023-24 soybean harvest was 94pc complete (95pc previous year), with fieldwork in Paraná now complete. Operations in Rio Grande do Sul are 75pc complete (78pc), interrupted by flooding, causing some crop losses. First (full-season) maize harvest was 63pc complete (68pc) and 2024-25 wheat planting was 16pc complete (17pc).
South American crop consultant Michael Cordonnier has cut his Argentine corn crop by another 2Mt to 47Mt, noting falling yields and increased impacts from corn stunt disease. He noted that the disease will have a greater impact on later-harvested corn acres and warned there could be additional cuts to his production estimate. Dr Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean number unchanged at 51Mt. He left his Brazilian soybean and corn production estimates at 147Mt and 112Mt, respectively, as he evaluates impacts from flooding in the south and dry weather in south-central safrinha corn areas.
Russia’s Ag Ministry has reportedly cut the grain export quota of one of the country’s largest grain traders Rodnie Polya (formerly known as TD RIF) for the current marketing year by almost 1.2Mt, setting the new quota at 2.78Mt amid the ongoing dispute over phytosanitary issues. The Ministry also completely nullified the quota for Louis Dreyfus Vostok and four other companies, though specific details on the quantities affected were not provided.
According to data released yesterday by Stats Canada, total wheat stocks held at 31 March fell 15pc yoy to 11.76Mt, durum stocks fell from 2.16Mt to 1.65Mt, while canola stocks increased from 7.03Mt to 8.26Mt.
Reuters reports that Egypt’s wheat imports have surged by 15pc in the first 10 months of 2023-24, reaching a five-year high of 12.5Mt. Around 77pc of the volume came from Russia. GASC recently purchased 110kt of EU wheat and 120kt of Ukrainian wheat for delivery in May 2024, according to the LSEG grain tenders database.
Australia
In the WA market, the main move this week has been in new crop prices. Canola (CAN) bids moved quickly from mid A$700s per tonne last week to $775/t FIS this week. New season wheat bids moved above $400/t for the first time since late 2023, and yesterday’s best bids were $408-$412/t FIS for all port zones. The current season white grain market has improved but not at the same pace as new crop values.
This week’s lineups data shows 2.88Mt of total grain on the stem for May, up from 2.68Mt last week. Wheat is showing 1.62Mt, barley 481kt, canola 725kt, and sorghum at 60kt. Port congestion increased a little this week with the maximum average wait time less than 10 days, with 10 vessels anchored and 6 loading.
As expected, the RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35pc. Economists now believe that we will not see any easing of rates until November at the earliest and that there is a risk that we may not see any cuts until 2025.
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