International

Global wheat prices continue to be pressured by US harvest which is now seen at 27pc complete this week compared to the average of 14pc, while rain in the Black Sea is also relieving some of the pressure that was building there. Harvest is also underway in southern Europe with production in Romania potentially a record 10.45 million tonnes (Mt) after beneficial rain during spring. The gains in Romania could offset production issues in France and Germany. 

Yesterday’s National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) report showed US soybean crush at 183.6 million bushels, a record for the month, more than 5Mbu above the average trade guess, and an 8pc increase from April. 

The Alberta Crop Report for the week ending 11 June noted that 2024-25 sowing is nearly complete, with spring wheat at 100pc, barley at 99pc, oats at 98pc and canola at 100pc. Despite recent rains, persistent strong winds saw an overall reduction in surface soil moisture in most areas. Crop growth is reportedly off to a good start, with emergence in line with historical averages. 

Ukraine’s Ag Ministry has pegged 2024-25 wheat production at 21Mt, down 3pc from last year, with exports pegged at 15Mt. Barley production seen at 5Mt, down 9pc, with exports at 2.5Mt. Maize production forecast at 28.5Mt, down 8pc – exports at 25Mt. Sunflowerseed production is expected to reach 13Mt, up 2pc, rapeseed at 4Mt, down 5pc and soybeans at 5Mt would be up 6pc.  

Ukraine Ag Ministry data shows cumulative 2023-24 exports for the week ending 14 June at 48.8Mt, up 3pc compared to last year, with wheat at 17.9Mt (+11pc), barley at 2.5Mt (-8pc) and maize at 27.8Mt (-1pc). 

Australia

The start to the week across local markets felt much the same as the end of last week. The market seems happy to follow offshore movements closely. Domestically we are continuing to see western Vic grain heading to SA which seems to be ramping up as the dry conditions really start to dig into feed supply. The bearish tone seems to indicate that there is seemingly enough grain to satisfy the increased interstate flow for now.

GIWA’s June Crop Report released last week noted June rainfall has ensured that crops that were sown dry will germinate and crops that had germinated will now have at least a chance of returning reasonable yields. Due to unseasonally warm soil temperatures, crops are bouncing out of the ground and making up time in growth stage. It noted that most canola crops in the medium and low rainfall regions are down on plant density and have germinated too late to reach profitable yields. They have revised up area planted from May, largely reflecting increased wheat area, with gains linked to the shifting out of poorly germinated canola crops, as well as fallow and pasture. Wheat area revised up to 5Mha (4.7Mha May f’cast), barley at 1.48Mha (1.47Mha) and canola at 1.66Mha (1.7Mha).