International

Stratégie Grains June update noted early 2024-25 harvest reports from southern Europe are mildly encouraging, especially in southern Spain. Despite outlooks remaining good in parts of eastern Europe, a sharp fall in production is expected in western Europe, most notably in France, amid excessively wet conditions. All-wheat production forecast was cut by 1.8Mt, to 129.1Mt (133.7Mt previous year). Barley production was cut by 0.8Mt, to 52.2Mt (47.5Mt), including winter barley down by 0.2Mt and spring barley by 0.6Mt. Corn production cut by 0.7Mt, to 62.6Mt (62.6Mt). 

FranceAgriMer reported that as at 10 June, the 2024-25 common wheat crop rated 62pc good/excellent (62pc previous week, 85pc previous year), durum 63pc (63pc, 81pc), winter barley  65pc (63pc, 85pc), spring barley 75pc (74pc, 83pc) and maize 80pc (80pc, 86pc). Maize plantings were 97pc complete (99pc previous year). 

The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported that for the week ending 12 June, 2023-24 maize harvest was 40pc complete (38pc previous year). Late-sown crops reportedly showed signs of water and heat stress as well as the adverse impact of leafhoppers. Soybean harvest was 96pc complete (98pc), with conditions rated 71pc fair/excellent (74pc). Beneficial rainfall during major developmental stages for later sown crops has resulted in above average yields in several areas, including in northern La Pampa, western Buenos Aires and southern Cordoba. It reported 2024-25 barley sowing 15pc complete, with fieldwork mostly concentrated in the central region and 2024-25 wheat sowing 46pc complete (39pc previous year), with accelerated progress notably in the central and south-western parts of the agricultural area following favourable rainfall. However, in the north, dry conditions adversely impacted soil moisture levels. 

The Rosario Grains Exchange has pegged Argentina’s 2024-25 wheat area at a record 6.9 million hectares (5.5Mha), reflecting good margins and rotational benefits after the impact of leafhoppers on corn crops. Production potentially could reach 21Mt (15.1Mt). They note reports of heavy sales of nitrogen, which may also support a high level of production. Although soil moisture reserves are abundant in eastern and western cropping areas, more recent dryness is a concern in some areas. 

Brazil’s Conab has revised down 2023-24 soybean production by 0.3Mt, to 147.4Mt (154.6Mt previous year, USDA 153Mt). Total 2023-24 maize production revised up by 2.5Mt, to 114.1Mt (131.9Mt previous year, USDA 127Mt). 

The Saskatchewan Crop Report for the week ending 10 June noted 2024-25 spring planting was 98pc complete (99pc previous year), with progress hampered by rainfall in the northeast and east-central regions. The wet conditions resulted in some flooding in low-lying areas. Spring wheat and oilseeds are behind normal stages of crop development. Winter wheat crop conditions were seen at 87pc good/excellent (69pc previous year), spring wheat at 87pc (81pc), durum at 93pc (72pc), barley at 87pc (82pc) and canola at 78pc (77pc). Provincial topsoil moisture was rated at 98pc surplus/adequate (95pc previous week, 68pc previous year). 

Japan’s MAFF reportedly purchased 109,126 tonnes of milling wheat, including 20,750 tonnes of US WW, 29,610 tonnes of US HRW, 6,766 tonnes of US DNS, 24,230 tonnes of CWRS (min. 13.5pc protein), and 27,770 tonnes of ASW, all for Aug/Sep loading. 

Australia

The close of the local market last week was mostly uneventful. Values in the eastern states mostly had held together from earlier in the week to finish down A$3-5/t. Grain liquidity mostly remained absent with only small volumes trickling through. The ASX Jan 25 contract ended Friday up $2/t at $370/t.

The 8-day forecast is currently dry for Qld and northern NSW, while southern NSW and Vic are looking at less than 10mm for the week ahead. SA has 5-15mm on the radar which is not enough, and WA is looking relatively dry with less than 10mm pencilled in for most cropping regions.