Wheat firmed more than 2 percent. Rapeseed firmed 2 percent and corn marked time.
- Chicago December 2024 wheat up US15.5c/bu to 612.5c/bu;
- Kansas Dec 2024 wheat up 12c/bu to 615.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat up 18.25c/bu to 650.75c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec 2024 up €5.75/t to €237.25/t;
- Corn Dec 2024 down 0.25c/bu to 420.5c/bu;
- Soybeans Nov 2024 up 7c/bu to 1111c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola shut for holiday, the previous Nov 2024 close was C$627.10/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €10/t to €496/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 wheat down A$1/t to $356/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $A303.90/t;
- AUD dollar down 10 points to US$0.6660.
International
I am seeing a case of early harvest blues. It is always tough to build a long-term story around this, but early reports from the French harvest are disappointing. I normally do my French crop report by watching the tour but they are still poking around Italy at the moment. The French crop has been under the pump for most of the growing season, so it makes sense that the initial stages of harvest reflect this both in wheat and canola. The heat has returned to the forecast in both the EU and the Black Sea and that probably is most relevant for the spring wheat prospects in the Black Sea. It does seem like the street is comfortable with somewhere from 80-83 million tonnes for Russian production. Given spring wheat counts for 20 percent of this number, there is still some exposure to seasonal conditions.
The veg oil complex continues its rally, driven mainly by canola. Matif rapeseed is now within sight of the May highs, adding almost €30/t in the last 4 sessions. Excessive rainfall and lack of sunlight has hampered the growing season across the EU and the Ukraine. Much was made about the expansion in global crush and, while a portion of this expansion has been delayed, any cuts in production will become challenging to solve. It is going to be interesting to see what China does in reaction to Indonesia’s plan to impose up to a 200 percent import tariffs on Chinese goods. Indonesia is openly reacting to US tariffs as it battles to protect a small manufacturing sector against cheap Chinese goods. How China reacts and the subsequent impact on palm oil imports will have a significant impact on the outlook for canola.
A combination of the US presidential debate and overnight ruling from the US Supreme Court that granted Donald partial immunity has financial markets considering how the world would look should he get the nod in November. Morgan Stanley and Goldman both gave their take on what they think the bond market will do post a Republican win. It is worth pointing out that both these institutions got it 180 degrees wrong the last time Donald was handed the keys to the White House. However, they both predict lower rates due to the inevitable economic policy shift.
The RBA will release its June Policy Meeting minutes today; ANZ bank reckons there is a 70 percent chance of a rate hike before the end of the year.
Australia
The main mover in the WA market this week has been new crop canola. Canola (CAN) bids were A$795/t FIS yesterday, and with the European futures gains overnight should be comfortably north of $800/t today. New season wheat bids remain around $375-80/t and feed barley $330/t, both FIS.
In the east, wheat and barley markets remained relatively unchanged from Friday. In Victoria, we saw a slight increase in canola trading values.
Southern Queensland and NNSW received widespread falls yesterday with most receiving 5-15mm, some spots of up to 25mm in NNSW. Minimal falls resulted for the rest of the cropping regions with some patchy falls of less than 10mm for parts of SNSW, Vic and SA but they were not widespread.
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