Corn fell 3 percent. Canola, rapeseed and Australian wheat futures firmed 1 percent. Other markets eased.
- Chicago December 2024 wheat down US4.5c/bu to 597c/bu;
- Kansas Dec 2024 wheat down 8.25c/bu to 603.25c/bu;
- Minneapolis Dec 2024 wheat down 4c/bu to 632.5c/bu;
- MATIF wheat Dec 2024 down €3.50/t to €231.50/t;
- Corn Dec 2024 down 13c/bu to 420.75c/bu;
- Soybeans Nov 2024 down 0.75c/bu to 1104c/bu;
- Winnipeg canola Nov 2024 up C$6/t to C$627.10/t;
- MATIF rapeseed Nov 2024 up €6.50/t to €486/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 wheat up A$5/t to $357/t;
- ASX Jan 2025 barley unchanged at $A303.90/t;
- AUD dollar up 23 points to US$0.6670.
International
USDA stocks in all positions and acreage report was released on Friday. Historically, this report has been a volatile one but was not so this time round. All the volatility was centred in the corn pit because report numbers for both the stocks and acres did not match up with trade guesses. New crop acres came in at 91.475 million acres (Mac) vs the average trade guess of 90.35Mac. The trade guess on stocks was 4.873 billion bushels (bbu) and the report had 4.99 bbu, a decent miss between USDA report and trade guess.
The bean numbers were supportive, but the market couldn’t sustain the bid under the weight of corn. Bean stocks came in at 970Mbu vs the pre-report average guess of 962Mbu. Acres were pegged at 86.1Mac, 0.653Mac lower than the guess.
This report tends to be mainly about the row crops. Wheat stocks came in at 702 mbu vs 684 mbu guess. All wheat acres came in 400,000 acres under the guess at 47.24Mac. There is always a twist and turn in the USDA number. USDA bumped up the harvested percentage, mainly in HRW which, despite the miss on acres, put HRW production just under 750Mbu
Back to trading weather, I guess. US row crop conditions look benign for the next 10 days, nothing to see there. Winter crops have some challenges. Parts of Germany received over 170mm in the past 72 hrs, heat is returning to the Russian grainbelt, mainly in the Volga Valley which will harm spring wheat.
Australia
Rain brought some welcome relief for much of the growing belt over the weekend. Parts of Kwinana/Geraldton received from 15 to 70mm while parts of the WD got 15-25mm.
GrainCorp sent out their National Crop Update on Friday, the only surprise being the slightly bullish view on the SA crop.
Parts of SA recorded falls of 50+mm over the past week, with some relief finally.
In the east, patchy falls ranged from 0-50mm with most measuring 5-15mm.
Canola new crop price finished last week higher. The bid for ISCC at Berrybank again exceeded $700/t.
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